Analysis
Longer pieces on how decisions are made and what they mean.
When Gulf policy shifts, Lebanon feels it first
When Gulf policy shifts, Lebanon feels it first
Riyadh and Abu Dhabi rarely announce a change of course. Beirut learns of it through its banks, its ports and its politics.
TopicAnalysis · DiplomacyRead3 min
Reading a vote at the Security Council from Beirut
Reading a vote at the Security Council from Beirut
A resolution is a negotiated text, and its weaker clauses say as much as its strong ones. What the latest vote on the south tells us about who is really committed.
TopicAnalysis · International InstitutionsRead3 min
What a decision in Washington means for a small state across the Mediterranean, and why it arrives here before it arrives anywhere else
What a decision in Washington means for a small state across the Mediterranean, and why it arrives here before it arrives anywhere else
Sanctions designations, aid conditions and envoy appointments are made for other reasons. Their first real-world test is often in Lebanon.
TopicAnalysis · Economy & Sanctions · Great-Power PoliticsRead3 min
Ceasefires that hold and ceasefires that don’t
Ceasefires that hold and ceasefires that don’t
The difference is rarely in the text. It lies in who monitors, who pays when a line is crossed, and whether either side believes the other has more to lose…
TopicAnalysis · Conflict & CeasefiresRead3 min
Why Ankara keeps every option open
Why Ankara keeps every option open
Turkey’s regional policy looks inconsistent only if you expect it to choose. Its strength is precisely that it refuses to.
TopicAnalysis · Great-Power Politics · SecurityRead3 min
Iran’s neighbours are no longer waiting for Washington
Iran’s neighbours are no longer waiting for Washington
Gulf capitals have opened their own channels to Tehran. The result is a regional security conversation the United States no longer chairs.
TopicAnalysis · Diplomacy · SecurityRead3 min